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  • 弯管加工行业的表现自然不言而喻
  • 本站编辑:杭州德越商业道具有限公司发布日期:2020-10-12 10:19 浏览次数:

弯管加工行业的表现自然不言而喻

The performance of bending pipe processing industry is self-evident

1.增加总量需求。今年上半年,决策部门频繁出台的微刺激措施,已经对稳定钢材需求发挥了积极作用。实际上,2014年前7个月中国粗钢需求已经超过了新增资源供应,主要依据是社会库存量的下降。今年5月末全国市场五种主要钢材社会库存量为1424万吨,同比下降21.8%。这就意味着同期粗钢产量与进口量(钢材折算)落后于消费需求量,不足部分要靠“挖库存”弥补。今后国家继续出台稳增长举措,以及前期政策效应的释放,下半年中国粗钢需求情况将好于上半年,全年粗钢需求(含直接出口)超过8亿吨,增长5%左右,总量需求增加态势不会改变。

1. Increase the total demand. In the first half of this year, the frequent micro stimulation measures issued by decision-making departments have played a positive role in stabilizing steel demand. In fact, in the first seven months of 2014, China's crude steel demand has exceeded the supply of new resources, mainly based on the decline in social inventories. At the end of May this year, the social inventory of five major steel products in the national market was 14.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. This means that the output and import of crude steel (steel conversion) in the same period lags behind the consumption demand, and the shortage should be made up by "digging inventory". In the future, China will continue to introduce measures to stabilize growth and release the effect of early policies. In the second half of the year, China's crude steel demand (including direct export) will exceed 800 million tons, with an increase of about 5%. The trend of total demand increase will not change.

2.建筑钢材需求有较多增加。由于本轮稳增长的侧重点是国民经济短板领域投资建设,一批重大建设项目有可能在下半年内开工,因此预计下半年固定资产投资增速会有回升,弯管加工需求总量中,建筑用钢材需求增加较多。

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2. The demand for building steel is increasing. Since the focus of this round of steady growth is investment and construction in the short board field of the national economy, a number of major construction projects are likely to start in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of fixed assets investment will pick up in the second half of the year. Among the total demand for bending pipe processing, the demand for construction steel will increase more.

3. 强劲出口成为钢材需求亮点。稳定出口,亦是宏观调控的重要方面。今年上半年,受到稳出口政策促进,出口成本下降(人民币贬值,国内钢材价格大幅下降),以及发达国家引领全球经济复苏等多项因素影响,中国钢材出口呈现强劲增长势头,预计下半年上述效应继续释放,中国钢材出口将保持较高水平,继续成为需求亮点。那么,接下来的市场该如何走,何时才能有转机?下面我们从以下几个方面简单谈谈:

3. Strong export has become the highlight of steel demand. Stabilizing exports is also an important aspect of macro-control. In the first half of this year, China's steel exports showed a strong growth momentum due to the promotion of stable export policies, the decrease of export costs (RMB devaluation, the sharp decline of domestic steel prices), and the global economic recovery led by developed countries. It is expected that the above effects will continue to release in the second half of this year, and China's steel exports will remain at a high level and continue to become a demand highlight. So, how should the next market go and when can it turn around? Let's talk about it from the following aspects:

一宏观层面缺乏利好支撑:当前国内宏观经济存在着不小的压力,钢铁行业资金紧张,周转速度慢。下游房地产市场价格下降态势未改,开工项目有限。不管是房地产行业的困难重重,还是地方政府债务危机,亦或是钢结构行业的资金压力,都反映出当前国内经济运行存在下行可能,国家经济大环境不理想,弯管加工行业的表现自然不言而喻。

One is the lack of favorable support at the macro level: at present, there is no small pressure on the domestic macro-economy, the steel industry is short of funds and the turnover speed is slow. The falling trend of the downstream real estate market price has not changed, and the construction projects are limited. Whether the difficulties of the real estate industry, the debt crisis of the local government, or the capital pressure of the steel structure industry, all reflect that the current domestic economic operation may go down, the national economic environment is not ideal, and the performance of the elbow processing industry is naturally self-evident.


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